Crypto
Here's Why Grayscale's Bitcoin Bear Market Call May Be Wrong
Grayscale's Bitcoin outlook faces questions as Puell Multiple, MVRV and macro risks paint a more complex picture of the current bear market.
8d ago 4,280
BLOCKINSIDERLoadingGrayscale's Bitcoin outlook faces questions as Puell Multiple, MVRV and macro risks paint a more complex picture of the current bear market.
Grayscale published a note this week arguing Bitcoin's bear phase runs into September or October 2026.
The asset manager frames the drop as a macro-driven shift, not just a cycle low. Traders now face a key question: do on-chain signals actually back that timeline?
Three major indicators suggest the picture is murkier than Grayscale's call implies.
Grayscale's research arm published the call on its blog this week. It argues the bear phase could persist through early autumn 2026. Analysts there believe that if a recovery starts afterward, markets may not follow that script.
The report suggests Bitcoin now behaves more like a macro asset. It argues that the classic four-year halving cycle may not fully apply anymore. That reasoning underpins the September-October window for a bottom.
Calling a bottom by calendar carries risk. Historical Bitcoin bottoms have never followed a strict date. On-chain data currently show conditions well short of full capitulation.
Grayscale isn't alone in this debate. Several analysts now question whether halving-driven cycles still dictate price action. Institutional flows and macro liquidity increasingly shape direction.
The Puell Multiple compares miner revenue to its 365-day average. It remains far from the typical bottom levels seen in past cycles. Prior lows saw it fall toward 0.3, deep in the green zone.
Currently, the Puell Multiple sits well above that historical floor. That points to a bear market, but not an extreme one. Bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022 all dipped much lower first.
The four-year cycle places 2024-2028 near its midpoint right now. A true bottom would typically show sharper miner capitulation than today's readings.
Glassnode's chart marks a green band between roughly 0.3 and 0.5. Bitcoin's price has yet to enter that historically undervalued zone this cycle.
MVRV pricing bands tell a similar story. Bitcoin's price sits between the 0.8x and 1.0x realized price bands, not below them.
Historically, a confirmed bottom requires MVRV below 0.8 for roughly 5% of trading days. That stretch hasn't happened yet in this cycle.
Without time spent below 0.8, the market lacks the deep undervaluation seen at past cycle lows. This weakens the case for an imminent bottom.
Every prior cycle low, including 2015, 2018, and 2022, showed this pattern. Price pierced the 0.8x band before recovery began.
One metric does hint at bottoming conditions forming. The percent of Bitcoin supply held in profit is worth watching closely.
Historically, a drop below 50% has coincided with cycle bottoms. It happened in 2015, 2018, and 2022, each followed by a strong recovery.
Recent data shows the metric hovering near that 50% threshold. This loosely aligns with Grayscale's proposed bearish window for the market.
Notably, the metric spiked above 95% earlier this cycle. That swing mirrors prior late-cycle tops before drawdowns began.
Still, this indicator alone isn't a definitive signal on its own. Profitable supply reacts quickly to price swings and can rebound fast.
Bitcoin price continues to respect its historical four-year market cycle, which has repeatedly marked major bottoms near the middle of each cycle. Trading around $65,478, BTC remains within that window.
Previous cycles eventually transitioned into sustained recoveries, making this pattern an important framework for long-term market participants to monitor.
Bitcoin is trading below its short-term exponential moving average, signaling persistent bearish momentum.
Although the current 53.6% drawdown is shallower than previous bear markets, weakness could continue for several months. If historical patterns remain intact, Bitcoin’s price may consolidate before attempting a recovery later this year.
That outlook broadly aligns with Grayscale's expectation of a recovery after October 2026. However, investors should recognize that previous market cycles lacked the macroeconomic pressures present today.
The US-Iran conflict, trade tariffs under President Donald Trump, and global policy uncertainty could influence Bitcoin price differently than in the prior four-year cycles.
Grayscale's September-October target may prove directionally right by coincidence alone. But on-chain data doesn't yet confirm a classic cycle bottom forming. Traders watching these indicators may want firmer confirmation before trusting that timeline.
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